CWS vs CLE prediction for October 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.6 - CWS 3.4. CLE is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
CLE
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
CWS
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECWS
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (4,049 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.6 — CWS 3.4
Actual
CLE 0 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hagen Smith L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph26% whiff
SL31%83 mph41% whiff
FC20%88 mph32% whiff
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%94 mph22% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
SI15%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
64°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.74ERA
4.22FIP
9.17K/9
4.42BB/9
1.29WHIP
CLE
3.37ERA
3.74FIP
10.02K/9
3.71BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.8 runs
38.5% win
CLE F5
1.9 runs
41.7% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.4%
YRFI
38.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.