FINAL: TB 1 — NYY 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 4.6 - NYY 3.5 (TB at 65.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TB
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
NYY
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYY
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (4,049 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
245
TB
357
Projected
TB 4.6 — NYY 3.5
Actual
TB 1 — NYY 0
Pick Results
TB MLmlWIN+0.40u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%97 mph19% whiff
SL20%90 mph25% whiff
KC14%83 mph19% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
FF28%96 mph24% whiff
SI24%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
86°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.28ERA
4.13FIP
8.35K/9
3.61BB/9
1.26WHIP
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI NRFI
-7.3% EV
-132
ML AWAY
-5.5% EV
+119
F5_ML HOME
+3.5% EV
-143
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-3.5% EV
-109
NRFI YRFI
-3.4% EV
+104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-2.9% EV
-192
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.8 runs
30.8% win
TB F5
2.7 runs
53.2% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
52.1%
YRFI
47.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
4%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB24.2%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY4 injured
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP60-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
TB7 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Griffin Jax SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model favors TB (56.9%) despite a modest pitcher edge (Rasmussen 2.88 ERA vs Cole 3.90 ERA) but the 1.2% ML edge sits below the 3.0% actionable threshold, and the game is already in progress (TB 1-0), eliminating any pre-game betting value.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge genuinely favors TB: Rasmussen 2.88 ERA (B overall, 0.464 stuff score) vs Cole 3.90 ERA (B overall, 0.412 stuff score) — Rasmussen has both lower ERA and higher stuff grade, a real but modest advantage, not a mismatch
- Edge magnitude (1.2pp) sits well below the calibration's 3.0% minimum ML edge threshold — not actionable by the system's own qualification standards
- Judge OUT (10-day IL calf) reduces NYY's projected run output; model's 3.52 away runs vs 4.56 home runs reflects this, and market (56.2% implied) is already very close to model (56.9%), suggesting the market has priced Judge's absence correctly
- Indoor dome (Tropicana, roof closed) = zero weather variance, park factor 1.0 — removes environmental uncertainty entirely from this analysis
- historical support history: home favorite in the 0-5% edge bucket carries a a supportive track record — even if model direction is right, this specific edge bucket has underperformed historically
Risk Factors
- Game currently IN PROGRESS (TB leading 1-0) — any forward-looking recommendation is moot; this is purely retrospective context
- Edge below actionable threshold (1.2% vs 3.0% minimum) — calibration system would not have generated a pick here regardless of pitcher-matchup narrative
- 0-5% edge home favorite bucket has 45.3% historical WR — even the modest edge direction has been a losing historical support in the broader dataset
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 65.0%
-2.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.4 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.