SD vs MIL prediction for October 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.0 - SD 4.1. MIL is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
MIL
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SD
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSD
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (4,049 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.0 — SD 4.1
Actual
MIL 3 — SD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%93 mph18% whiff
SL24%86 mph32% whiff
CH18%86 mph24% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph36% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
56°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.84ERA
3.52FIP
9.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.21WHIP
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.0 runs
31.3% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
53.5% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Walker Buehler SPPATERNITY
Rodolfo Duran C60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL5 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.