CWS vs KC prediction for September 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.8 - CWS 5.0. CWS is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
KC
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CWS
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCWS
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
KC
357
Projected
KC 4.8 — CWS 5.0
Actual
KC 1 — CWS 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Sandlin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%96 mph14% whiff
CU23%83 mph21% whiff
FC20%91 mph29% whiff
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI39%92 mph6% whiff
ST25%82 mph31% whiff
CH22%85 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
76°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.006
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.80ERA
4.24FIP
9.19K/9
4.47BB/9
1.31WHIP
KC
4.95ERA
4.84FIP
8.07K/9
4.57BB/9
1.54WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.8 runs
41.3% win
KC F5
2.9 runs
44.8% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
48.7%
YRFI
51.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
KC8 injured
Steven Cruz RPPATERNITY
Craig Kimbrel RPBEREAVEMENT
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.