STL vs PIT prediction for September 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.6 - STL 4.1. PIT is favored with a 60.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
PIT
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
STL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSTL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 4.6 — STL 4.1
Actual
PIT 2 — STL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph13% whiff
CU16%83 mph26% whiff
SL16%89 mph22% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph27% whiff
ST16%84 mph26% whiff
CH12%89 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
60°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.987
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.47ERA
4.23FIP
8.55K/9
4.24BB/9
1.36WHIP
PIT
3.77ERA
3.58FIP
9.63K/9
4.16BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.2 runs
35.8% win
PIT F5
2.8 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL5 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Joshua Baez LF10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
PIT5 injured
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Esmerlyn Valdez RF10-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.