FINAL: TEX 3 — NYM 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 4.1 - NYM 4.0 (TEX at 53.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TEX
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM L5TEX
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.1 — NYM 4.0
Actual
TEX 3 — NYM 1
Pick Results
NYM @ TEX NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%88 mph15% whiff
FF26%92 mph17% whiff
ST16%80 mph25% whiff
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL37%83 mph41% whiff
SI30%94 mph8% whiff
FC14%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
91°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.47ERA
4.45FIP
9.27K/9
3.78BB/9
1.34WHIP
TEX
4.31ERA
4.48FIP
8.46K/9
3.79BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-11.3% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-6.0% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+5.5% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-4.7% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-3.0% EV
+164
ML HOME
-2.8% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
40.0% win
TEX F5
2.4 runs
44.2% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zac Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Kumar Rocker
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Cal Quantrill RP60-DAY-IL
Joc Pederson DH10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Michel Otanez RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model and market both lean home TEX but disagree on magnitude, pitcher matchup is only modestly in NYM's favor, and weather signals contradict the model's UNDER lean. No clear edge; SKIP.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge modest: Thornton 3.67 ERA vs Rocker 4.83 ERA, 1.16 gap.
- Weather/roof closed creates neutral climate despite 91.2F outside temp.
- Model-market agreement direction but low conviction magnitude.
- Home favorite historically weak applies (a supportive track record small edges).
- Total model 8.13 below market 8.5, contradicting hot-weather expectation.
Risk Factors
- Model-market disagreement on total direction suggests uncertainty.
- Neither starter is ace-level; game lacks strong directional conviction.
- Closed roof negates weather edge that would otherwise favor overs.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 53.7%
-3.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.0 pts
Total
8.5
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.