FINAL: CHC 2 — MIA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 5.2 - MIA 4.6 (CHC at 58.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
CHC
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIA
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 5.2 — MIA 4.6
Actual
CHC 2 — MIA 1
Pick Results
MIA @ CHC YRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph4% whiff
ST24%84 mph31% whiff
FS23%87 mph34% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph14% whiff
CH28%79 mph26% whiff
SL14%83 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
64°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.991
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.30ERA
4.00FIP
9.88K/9
4.30BB/9
1.31WHIP
CHC
4.26ERA
4.66FIP
9.26K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+28.4% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
-12.0% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-11.6% EV
-196
F5 OVER 3.5
+7.9% EV
-130
ML HOME
-6.7% EV
-204
F5_ML AWAY
+6.1% EV
+156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.5 runs
37.7% win
CHC F5
3.0 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Kevin Gausman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Alex Bregman 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
MIA away has the better starter (Phillips 3.73 ERA vs Boyd 4.38 ERA) yet market prices CHC as -204 favorite (67.1% implied) vs model's more modest 58.6% CHC win prob, creating +6.1% MIA ML edge. Away ML is historically well-supported.
Key Factors
- Away pitcher advantage: Phillips 3.73 ERA vs Boyd 4.38 ERA, 0.65 gap.
- historically well-supported confirmation: away ML/spread validates 64% recent form (64W-36L, +2.1u).
- Wrigley wind 7.9mph IN suppresses scoring (0.991 multiplier).
- CHC's home-field premium (-204) not fully justified by starter quality gap.
- Boyd has better control (7.5% BB) than Phillips (10.1% BB), a partial offset.
Risk Factors
- CHC's genuine home strength at Wrigley is a real historical effect.
- 8.5% model-market gap is large; verify it isn't model miss on CHC lineup strength.
- Phillips' higher walk rate could add baserunners for CHC's strong lineup (Crow-Armstrong 40/40 club).
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 58.6%
-5.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.4 pts
Total
7.0
+28.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.