TB vs NYY prediction for September 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.2 - TB 3.7. NYY is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
NYY
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
TB
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
6.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.2 — TB 3.7
Actual
NYY 6 — TB 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH29%83 mph36% whiff
FF27%91 mph22% whiff
ST20%82 mph29% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph32% whiff
FC26%95 mph21% whiff
SI19%98 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
63°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.35ERA
3.74FIP
9.05K/9
2.66BB/9
1.11WHIP
NYY
3.28ERA
4.11FIP
8.24K/9
3.57BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.8 runs
33.8% win
NYY F5
2.4 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.