FINAL: STL 5 — CWS 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 4.0 - CWS 4.6 (CWS at 56.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
STL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCWS
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWSSTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.0 — CWS 4.6
Actual
STL 5 — CWS 6
Pick Results
CWS MLmlWIN+0.49u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Newcomb L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph25% whiff
SV32%83 mph29% whiff
SI22%93 mph7% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph13% whiff
CU16%83 mph26% whiff
SL16%89 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
90°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.04ERA
4.32FIP
8.86K/9
4.29BB/9
1.34WHIP
STL
4.49ERA
4.23FIP
8.22K/9
4.08BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 4.5
-9.2% EV
-118
ML HOME
-8.2% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.6% EV
+199
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-5.2% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
+4.8% EV
-104
ML AWAY
+4.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.6 runs
47.8% win
STL F5
2.2 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS27.2%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Kyle Teel CWS25.4%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Newcomb
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
STL6 injured
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
STL home projects at only 43.5% WP against a market of +100 (50% implied), creating a modest +4.4% edge favoring CWS away at 54.1% model WP. Sean Newcomb (2.93 ERA, 67.2% command) has a real edge over Kyle Leahy (3.68 ERA, 65.5% command), but the resulting edge size is small and inside normal variance.
Key Factors
- Newcomb pitcher advantage +0.75 ERA (2.93 vs 3.68) supports the away CWS lean, but STL's roster quality tempers full conviction
- Even matchup overall: both teams reasonable quality, modest pitcher gap, park roughly neutral after accounting for thin-air +0.3 run bump
- F5_ML +4.8% edge is marginal, confirming a slight but non-dominant early CWS advantage
Risk Factors
- Newcomb's elite command (67.2%) could just as easily support the argument that STL's -107 pricing (nearly even) is roughly fair rather than mispriced
- Thin-air Busch Stadium (2241 ft density altitude) modestly inflates both offenses equally, providing no unique edge to either side
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 56.5%
-5.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.6 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.