DET vs MIN — September 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is 1.5 with a total of 9.0. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
MIN
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
DET
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINDET
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jackson Jobe R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%98 mph11% whiff
SL24%90 mph16% whiff
SI17%96 mph20% whiff
Taj Bradley R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%97 mph13% whiff
FC24%90 mph34% whiff
FS20%92 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
90°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.087 Total: 1.046
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.14ERA
4.58FIP
8.42K/9
4.20BB/9
1.31WHIP
MIN
4.37ERA
4.05FIP
9.00K/9
3.99BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.9 runs
39.3% win
MIN F5
3.3 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
48.8%
YRFI
51.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.