FINAL: BOS 6 — SEA 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 5.9 - SEA 6.6 (SEA at 50.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 12.5 total runs.
BOS
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
6.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSEA
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W4BOS L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (3,658 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
579
BOS
468
Projected
BOS 5.9 — SEA 6.6
Actual
BOS 6 — SEA 9
Pick Results
SEA @ BOS F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.57u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%96 mph9% whiff
SL15%87 mph31% whiff
Jedixson Paez R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH24%84 mph42% whiff
FF23%92 mph7% whiff
FC20%88 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
64°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.972 Total: 0.982
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.94ERA
4.04FIP
8.99K/9
3.52BB/9
1.32WHIP
BOS
3.24ERA
3.38FIP
9.55K/9
3.00BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 4.5
+32.8% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+25.1% EV
+102
NRFI NRFI
-15.8% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-13.9% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-8.6% EV
-204
NRFI YRFI
+6.3% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
4.1 runs
52.8% win
BOS F5
3.3 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
7.4
NRFI
45.0%
YRFI
55.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Dominic Canzone SEA29.9%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Jedixson Paez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS28.1%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Cal Raleigh SEA27.1%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Jedixson Paez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Jedixson Paez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP15-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Eduardo Rivera P60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
The model's +25.1% TOTAL OVER edge is a textbook calibration failure — the TOTAL market is disabled, edges above 20% have historically produced only 33-38% win rates, and cold Fenway weather (63.8F, 8mph headwind) should suppress runs, not inflate them to 12.47.
Key Factors
- TOTAL market disabled: system-wide a supportive track record baseline, BLOCKED qualifier status
- Edge >20% historical failure: 33-38% win rate historical support confirmed in prior data
- Weather contradicts model: 63.8F + wind blowing IN (-7.6 tailwind) should suppress runs ~1.0, not support a 12.47 total
- Extreme SP mismatch: Paez 19.44 ERA (D) vs Woo 4.71 ERA (B) is real but doesn't explain a 12+ run total on its own
- Park factor modest: Fenway 1.08x partially offset by cold weather multiplier of 0.982
Risk Factors
- This is flagged as a CALIBRATION FAILURE, not a betting opportunity — treat any total signal here as noise
- Massive edges (25%+) have the worst historical hit rate of any bucket in our data
- Cold + wind-in conditions add real scoring suppression risk that the model appears to be ignoring
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.5%
-8.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-8.6 pts
Total
7.5
+25.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.