FINAL: PIT 13 — SF 12. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 4.3 - SF 4.3 (PIT at 53.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
PIT
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSF
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFPIT W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (3,563 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 4.3 — SF 4.3
Actual
PIT 13 — SF 12
Pick Results
SF @ PIT F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%92 mph9% whiff
CH24%86 mph26% whiff
ST20%84 mph19% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph27% whiff
ST16%84 mph28% whiff
CH13%89 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
91°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.090 Total: 1.048
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.73ERA
4.46FIP
7.51K/9
4.46BB/9
1.49WHIP
PIT
3.44ERA
3.60FIP
9.80K/9
4.22BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+15.5% EV
+134
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-9.0% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.8% EV
+136
ML HOME
-7.8% EV
-167
NRFI NRFI
-5.8% EV
-143
NRFI YRFI
-5.5% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.5 runs
45.7% win
PIT F5
2.2 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.181 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT28.3%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF28.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF60-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT4 injured
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
SF away ML shows only +2.5% edge and falls squarely into the RED away-ML historical support — pitcher parity (Skenes 4.09 ERA vs Webb 4.02 ERA) doesn't justify overriding the structural away disadvantage.
Key Factors
- Away ML historically weak: 44.1% historical WR on 123 tracked away-favorite-vs-dog plays
- Pitcher parity, not mismatch: Skenes 4.09 vs Webb 4.02 ERA — 0.07 run gap is negligible
- F5_ML edge (+15.5%) can't be trusted: that market is disabled (a supportive track record, 128-128 record)
- PNC Park neutral: 1.0x factor, no weather tailwind for either side
- Both bullpens comparable; no fatigue signal identified
Risk Factors
- Away ML structural disadvantage compounds any thin edge into a likely loser
- Cannot cross-validate the strong F5_ML signal due to disabled status
- PIT home fans/field could tip a close game their way
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 53.2%
-8.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.8 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.