MIL vs CHC — September 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is 1.5 with a total of 9.5. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
CHC
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIL
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%95 mph27% whiff
SV31%82 mph28% whiff
CH9%86 mph20% whiff
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI51%93 mph9% whiff
ST18%82 mph26% whiff
CH14%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
87°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.100 Total: 1.054
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.17ERA
3.52FIP
9.22K/9
3.59BB/9
1.22WHIP
CHC
4.24ERA
4.65FIP
9.36K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.9 runs
36.9% win
CHC F5
3.5 runs
51.5% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.