FINAL: CHC 4 — MIL 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 6.9 - MIL 6.9 (CHC at 53.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 13.9 total runs.
CHC
6.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
MIL
6.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (3,658 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
579
CHC
579
Projected
CHC 6.9 — MIL 6.9
Actual
CHC 4 — MIL 9
Pick Results
MIL @ CHC F5 OVER 5.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%80 mph28% whiff
SI23%92 mph11% whiff
FF23%93 mph22% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%93 mph13% whiff
CH26%79 mph26% whiff
SL15%83 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
92°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.088 Total: 1.047
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.18ERA
3.54FIP
9.19K/9
3.58BB/9
1.22WHIP
CHC
4.28ERA
4.68FIP
9.34K/9
4.06BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 5.5
+24.6% EV
-102
NRFI NRFI
-16.1% EV
+112
TOTAL OVER 10.0
+13.6% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-9.8% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-5.5% EV
-185
ML HOME
-4.0% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
3.9 runs
38.3% win
CHC F5
4.6 runs
52.3% win
F5 Total
8.4
NRFI
37.0%
YRFI
63.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.6
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
87%
No HR
3%
Jackson Chourio MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 1.03x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Robert Gasser | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Pedro Ramirez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
A +13.6% TOTAL OVER edge (and an even more extreme +24.6% F5 OVER edge) sits in the disabled TOTAL market — this is the same overconfidence signature seen elsewhere on the slate, and should be blocked rather than played.
Key Factors
- TOTAL market disabled: cannot be trusted for any run total play today
- Edge 13.6% sits in known failure historical support: 40-45% historical WR for 10-15% edge totals
- Heat + wind real but modest: 91.7F + 7mph out = ~+0.9 run boost, doesn't fully justify 13.88 projection
- SP parity: Boyd 4.31 ERA vs Gasser 4.96 ERA, no decisive mismatch
- F5 OVER edge extreme (+24.6%): cascading overconfidence from the same disabled total signal
Risk Factors
- Calibration failure in parent TOTAL market invalidates derivative F5/NRFI signals here
- Wrigley wind direction is volatile and can flip mid-game
- High-edge historical support has a documented poor historical hit rate
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.2%
-2.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.6 pts
Total
10.0
+13.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.