NYM vs TB prediction for September 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.3 - NYM 4.0. TB is favored with a 60.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
TB
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
TB
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Stock R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%91 mph19% whiff
FF26%96 mph28% whiff
SI20%94 mph15% whiff
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH30%83 mph35% whiff
FF27%91 mph21% whiff
ST21%82 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F7 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.16ERA
4.26FIP
9.44K/9
4.17BB/9
1.37WHIP
TB
3.53ERA
3.86FIP
8.85K/9
2.72BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
33.4% win
TB F5
3.2 runs
52.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.