FINAL: TB 6 — NYM 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 4.7 - NYM 4.3 (TB at 56.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
TB
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM W4TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (3,658 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
TB
357
Projected
TB 4.7 — NYM 4.3
Actual
TB 6 — NYM 2
Pick Results
NYM @ TB F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%91 mph20% whiff
ST31%76 mph30% whiff
SI20%90 mph7% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF52%94 mph19% whiff
CH23%87 mph26% whiff
CU13%79 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
81°F7 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.19ERA
4.25FIP
9.40K/9
4.16BB/9
1.37WHIP
TB
3.52ERA
3.85FIP
8.85K/9
2.71BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI NRFI
-7.1% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
+106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-5.3% EV
-182
F5 OVER 4.5
+5.1% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-4.5% EV
+116
NRFI YRFI
-4.3% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.5 runs
38.8% win
TB F5
2.8 runs
46.9% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.2%
YRFI
50.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.309 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB29.9%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Manaea
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM6 injured
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Both starters carry inflated ERAs (Peralta 5.52, Manaea 4.91) in a neutral dome, and the model's home ML edge (-2.9%) is too thin and negative to act on — market has this fairly priced.
Key Factors
- Both SPs mediocre: Peralta 5.52 ERA, Manaea 4.91 ERA — no decisive mismatch
- Domed neutral park: Tropicana 1.0x factor, roof closed, removes weather edge
- Negative ML edge: -2.9% on home means market priced this better than the model
- TB bullpen strength (3.52 ERA, 1.76 closer) already reflected in the -135 line
- F5 OVER edge marginal at +5.1%, not enough on its own
Risk Factors
- Juan Soto's 30% HR probability could create outlier scoring events either direction
- Neither team's bullpen fatigue data available to break the tie
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 56.1%
-2.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.8 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.