FINAL: MIN 6 — DET 11. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 6.0 - DET 5.1 (MIN at 59.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
MIN
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINDET
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
MIN
468
Projected
MIN 6.0 — DET 5.1
Actual
MIN 6 — DET 11
Pick Results
MIN MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph18% whiff
CH30%90 mph35% whiff
CU23%80 mph33% whiff
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS27%83 mph37% whiff
FF25%93 mph13% whiff
FC18%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
88°F1 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.37ERA
4.67FIP
8.40K/9
4.33BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIN
4.38ERA
4.09FIP
9.06K/9
4.05BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-13.5% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.3% EV
+164
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+8.1% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
-7.0% EV
-125
NRFI YRFI
-4.3% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.7 runs
37.1% win
MIN F5
3.4 runs
50.3% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Kody Clemens MIN29.4%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Drew Anderson | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Kevin McGonigle DET24.5%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 7.0% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Riley Greene DET24.3%
ISO: 0.204 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Anderson
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Dean Kremer
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Kremer's 6.05 ERA (worst starter quality on the slate at home) combined with Anderson's below-average 4.18 ERA and warm 87.7F weather produces a clean 8.1% total edge sitting precisely in our best-performing 5-10% historical support.
Key Factors
- Kremer 6.05 ERA is among the worst starters on today's entire slate; Anderson 4.18 ERA is also below league average
- Combined SP ERA of 10.23 signals a highly leaky pitching matchup
- 87.7F warm temperature adds 0.5-0.7 run inflation on top of already-weak starting pitching
- 8.1% edge sits directly in our historically best-performing 5-10% edge band (a supportive track record, 35-13 record over 30 days)
- Both bullpens mediocre (DET 4.37 ERA, MIN 4.38 ERA) support continued scoring if starters exit early
Risk Factors
- Market set the total at only 8.5 despite these ERAs, suggesting the market may see contextual factors (recent starts, workload) our model doesn't fully capture
- F5 edge is comparatively small (2.2%), suggesting scoring may be more back-loaded than front-loaded, adding some variance to any F5 alternative
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 59.3%
-1.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.0 pts
Total
8.5
+8.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.