FINAL: CLE 0 — TOR 11. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.9 - TOR 4.0 (CLE at 52.3% win probability). CLE wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETOR
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.0% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.9 — TOR 4.0
Actual
CLE 0 — TOR 11
Pick Results
TOR @ CLE F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph23% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH12%82 mph48% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%92 mph15% whiff
CU30%80 mph35% whiff
CH25%81 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
93°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.63ERA
4.17FIP
8.35K/9
3.89BB/9
1.30WHIP
CLE
3.45ERA
3.77FIP
10.02K/9
3.79BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
-132
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.1% EV
+134
F5 OVER 3.5
-7.8% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.1% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-4.3% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 3.5
-4.2% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.1 runs
43.0% win
CLE F5
2.0 runs
39.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
62.3%
YRFI
37.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Chase DeLauter CLE25.8%
ISO: 0.170 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR23.9%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
George Springer TOR19.2%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Cease's elite road form (2.52 ERA) is already reflected in TOR's -131 line, and all model edges here are marginal (1.7% ML, sub-5% totals both directions) — no actionable disagreement with the market.
Key Factors
- Cease (away) 2.52 ERA/35.6% K rate is a legitimate ace; Cantillo (home) 4.0 ERA/24.8% K rate is solid but clearly second-tier
- Model still shows only a 48% CLE win prob for the home side, appropriately respecting Cease's quality
- Bullpen near-parity: CLE 3.45 ERA vs TOR 3.63 ERA
- Total model 7.85 vs market 7.5 is a negligible 0.35 run gap
- 93.4F warm weather is present but not enough to move a tight number
Risk Factors
- No edge exceeds 2% on any market here — pure coin-flip from a betting-value perspective
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 52.3%
-1.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.6 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.