FINAL: TB 4 — NYM 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 5.6 - NYM 4.8 (TB at 57.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
TB
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM W5TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
TB
468
Projected
TB 5.6 — NYM 4.8
Actual
TB 4 — NYM 10
Pick Results
NYM @ TB F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.52u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Hagenman R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC33%87 mph24% whiff
SI25%93 mph26% whiff
CH23%87 mph11% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%88 mph34% whiff
CH23%91 mph39% whiff
SI21%96 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
79°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.18ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.13BB/9
1.37WHIP
TB
3.52ERA
3.86FIP
8.85K/9
2.78BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-9.2% EV
-172
NRFI NRFI
-7.9% EV
-111
ML HOME
-5.7% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+5.5% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.7% EV
+120
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.6% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.7 runs
38.5% win
TB F5
3.3 runs
48.7% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Justin Hagenman | Park: 0.92x
Victor Mesa Jr. TB24.2%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Justin Hagenman | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Hagenman
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
TB7 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Jax's clear SP quality edge over a cold reliever fill-in (Hagenman) combined with TB's elite bullpen (1.74 closer ERA) supports the OVER 8.0 in a neutral dome environment, a clean 5.5% edge with an identifiable driver.
Key Factors
- Jax (3.92 ERA, 26.2% K rate) is a much stronger arm than Hagenman, a reliever making a spot start with no established ERA
- TB bullpen elite: 3.52 ERA, 1.74 closer ERA (best in MLB) means late-game runs are likely even if the start goes okay
- Dome closed removes all weather variance, isolating this to a pure personnel play
- F5 OVER 4.5 shows a supporting 4.6% edge
- Model's 59.7% TB home win prob is actually lower than market's 63.2% implied, an unusual reversal worth noting
Risk Factors
- Hagenman has zero track record as a starter, creating real uncertainty in either direction
- Market being MORE bullish on TB than the model itself tempers full conviction on this over
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 57.6%
-4.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.7 pts
Total
8.0
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.