PHI vs ARI prediction for September 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.9 - PHI 3.7. ARI is favored with a 61.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
ARI
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIPHI
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.8% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph42% whiff
FF24%92 mph12% whiff
SI18%92 mph9% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%93 mph12% whiff
SI17%93 mph7% whiff
CH17%87 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
98°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.092 Total: 1.048
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.32ERA
3.87FIP
10.29K/9
3.60BB/9
1.35WHIP
ARI
3.34ERA
3.58FIP
7.89K/9
2.99BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
33.1% win
ARI F5
2.9 runs
51.3% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
ARI8 injured
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.