FINAL: ARI 1 — PHI 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 4.7 - PHI 4.4 (ARI at 55.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
ARI
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIPHI
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHI L4ARI W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
ARI
357
Projected
ARI 4.7 — PHI 4.4
Actual
ARI 1 — PHI 0
Pick Results
PHI @ ARI F5 UNDER 5.5f5WIN+0.78u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%96 mph12% whiff
SL19%88 mph36% whiff
ST16%83 mph26% whiff
Taylor Clarke R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL31%88 mph36% whiff
CH28%90 mph19% whiff
SI21%95 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
100°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.097 Total: 1.050
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.26ERA
3.84FIP
10.27K/9
3.59BB/9
1.34WHIP
ARI
3.37ERA
3.58FIP
7.86K/9
3.03BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
-130
NRFI YRFI
-9.1% EV
-125
F5 UNDER 4.5
-6.1% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
-5.9% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-4.7% EV
-105
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-4.4% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.4 runs
40.5% win
ARI F5
2.7 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
50.4%
YRFI
49.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Taylor Clarke | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI26.1%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Taylor Clarke | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI25.2%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Taylor Clarke
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
ARI8 injured
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
DATA_INTEGRITY flag: model favors ARI at home (55%) despite away starter Painter (6.43 ERA) being far worse than home starter Clarke (2.81 ERA) — model direction contradicts basic pitcher quality and should not be trusted here.
Key Factors
- PITCHER ATTRIBUTION CHECK FAILED: Clarke (home, 2.81 ERA) has a MUCH better ERA than Painter (away, 6.43 ERA), a 3.62 ERA gap, yet model favors the team with the weaker starter's opponent line
- This directional conflict (model likes ARI home despite PHI having the better starter) is a textbook DATA_INTEGRITY signal
- Market (PHI -129, 56.5% implied) aligns with the sensible pitcher-quality read, not the model
- Totals show no edge either way (OVER -4.4%, UNDER -4.7%), confirming market efficiency on runs
- 100.2F heat at Chase Field with retractable roof and 5.4mph tailwind offer mild overs support but not a standalone play
Risk Factors
- Model output for this game should not be trusted for ML or spread due to the pitcher-direction conflict
- Total edges are both negative, offering no fallback angle either
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 55.0%
+3.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+3.2 pts
Total
8.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.