FINAL: BOS 3 — SEA 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 6.7 - SEA 6.0 (BOS at 57.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 12.7 total runs.
BOS
6.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSEA
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W4BOS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
BOS
579
Projected
BOS 6.7 — SEA 6.0
Actual
BOS 3 — SEA 8
Pick Results
SEA @ BOS F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.43u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph16% whiff
FS25%85 mph29% whiff
SL9%88 mph29% whiff
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL25%87 mph24% whiff
CH24%84 mph39% whiff
SI21%94 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
72°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.970 Total: 0.981
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.96ERA
4.11FIP
8.59K/9
3.40BB/9
1.32WHIP
BOS
3.10ERA
3.32FIP
9.62K/9
2.99BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+18.8% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
-17.3% EV
-135
F5 OVER 4.5
+17.1% EV
-110
NRFI YRFI
+9.2% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.7% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-5.7% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.4 runs
40.9% win
BOS F5
3.8 runs
47.9% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
44.2%
YRFI
55.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Dominic Canzone SEA26.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x
Wilyer Abreu BOS24.8%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Julio Rodríguez SEA23.8%
ISO: 0.095 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Patrick Sandoval | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Patrick Sandoval
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP15-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
Eduardo Rivera P60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
The model-market total gap is extreme (18.8% edge, historically our worst-performing band) but Fenway's inflationary park factor plus two average starters gives a real basis for the over — tempered heavily by a 10.7mph wind blowing IN that likely suppresses some of that projected scoring.
Key Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING: 18.8% edge is in the historically worst-performing historical support
- Wind blowing IN at 10.7 mph (tail wind component -9.0) actively suppresses fly ball scoring, working against the model's over lean
- SP parity: Sandoval 4.54 ERA vs Miller 4.45 ERA, no ace-level mismatch to explain the gap
- F5 OVER 4.5 shows a cleaner 17.1% edge but is subject to the same high-edge caution
- Two players (Rafaela, Rutschman) are day-to-day, adding lineup uncertainty to BOS's projected offense
Risk Factors
- This is the single largest model-market disconnect on the slate — exactly the pattern our data says to distrust most
- Wind direction (IN, not out) directly contradicts the over thesis physically, which the model may be underweighting
- Fenway variance (wall quirks) adds unpredictability regardless of direction
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 57.1%
+0.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.4 pts
Total
8.5
+18.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.