SEA vs BOS prediction for September 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.4 - SEA 5.4. BOS is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
BOS
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSEA
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
BOS
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%97 mph21% whiff
ST29%87 mph25% whiff
SI20%97 mph10% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%96 mph25% whiff
SI22%95 mph12% whiff
FC20%89 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
61°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.991
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.90ERA
4.05FIP
8.99K/9
3.48BB/9
1.31WHIP
BOS
3.18ERA
3.36FIP
9.54K/9
3.01BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.8 runs
41.3% win
BOS F5
3.0 runs
45.5% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP15-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.