FINAL: PIT 4 — SF 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 5.6 - SF 4.7 (PIT at 58.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
PIT
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSF
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SF W5PIT
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
PIT
468
Projected
PIT 5.6 — SF 4.7
Actual
PIT 4 — SF 5
Pick Results
PIT MLmlLOSS-0.50u
SF @ PIT F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%93 mph7% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH21%87 mph26% whiff
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%98 mph18% whiff
SL21%91 mph24% whiff
CH15%92 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
93°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.037
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.71ERA
4.46FIP
7.54K/9
4.42BB/9
1.49WHIP
PIT
3.59ERA
3.63FIP
9.79K/9
4.32BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-9.3% EV
-149
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-6.6% EV
-161
NRFI YRFI
-5.8% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
-5.3% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-5.2% EV
+128
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.1% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.7 runs
41.0% win
PIT F5
3.0 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT26.8%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF26.1%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Gilbert CFDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF60-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT4 injured
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Chandler and Roupp are near-identical mediocre starters (4.60 vs 4.59 ERA), and while PIT's bullpen edge supports a mild home lean, the market's -151 price already captures it — no edge clears our action threshold.
Key Factors
- SP parity: Chandler 4.60 ERA vs Roupp 4.59 ERA, essentially identical quality
- PIT bullpen 3.59 ERA (elite tier) clearly better than SF's 4.71 ERA (below average)
- PNC Park neutral factor (1.0) with 11.1mph wind, modest tailwind component (3.4mph)
- F5 OVER 4.5 shows only a 4.1% edge, below our standard action threshold
- All full-game total edges are under 3%
Risk Factors
- No market shows an edge above 5%, meaning this game offers no clear value on any side
- Market's home price is already stronger than the model's own projection, removing any home-side rationale too
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 58.7%
-0.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-0.9 pts
Total
8.5
+2.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.