FINAL: SEA 6 — HOU 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.8 - HOU 4.0 (HOU at 52.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAHOU
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOU L4SEA W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (4,029 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 3.8 — HOU 4.0
Actual
SEA 6 — HOU 5
Pick Results
HOU MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ethan Pecko R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF22%94 mph24% whiff
SI22%93 mph16% whiff
FC20%90 mph16% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%97 mph20% whiff
ST28%88 mph26% whiff
SI21%97 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
57°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.975 Total: 0.985
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.68ERA
4.13FIP
9.12K/9
3.63BB/9
1.22WHIP
SEA
4.14ERA
4.24FIP
8.71K/9
3.39BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-9.7% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-8.4% EV
-116
ML HOME
-7.5% EV
-123
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.9% EV
+159
ML AWAY
+4.2% EV
+113
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+3.0% EV
+103
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.2 runs
41.5% win
SEA F5
2.2 runs
41.9% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
9%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Ethan Pecko | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Cal Raleigh SEA28.6%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Ethan Pecko | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ethan Pecko
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Jake Meyers CFDAY-TO-DAY
Cristian Javier SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremy Pena SSDAY-TO-DAY
Brice Matthews CFDAY-TO-DAY
Daulton Varsho CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Andres Munoz RPDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
HOU shows a clean 7.0% ML edge (47.8% model vs 44.6% market) despite Kirby (4.58 ERA) being a modestly better starter than Pecko (4.07 ERA C-grade overall), suggesting the model's edge is lineup/bullpen-driven rather than pitching-driven, and the away-underdog penalty argues for reduced sizing.
Key Factors
- AWAY ML edge 7.0% (47.8% vs 44.6%) is the second-best clean directional edge on the slate
- F5_ML HOU shows an even cleaner 7.2% edge (48.3% vs 41.1%), suggesting the early-inning angle may be more reliable than full game
- SP comparison is close (Pecko C grade overall 0.283 vs Kirby B- 0.473) — not a decisive mismatch, so edge is not purely pitching-driven
- HOU bullpen (3.68 ERA) is meaningfully better than SEA's (4.14 ERA), supporting the value in late innings
Risk Factors
- Away underdog ML combo carries a a supportive track record historical penalty — reduce sizing to account for this structural risk
- HOU dealing with several day-to-day injury notes (Pena wrist, Javier groin, Varsho wrist) that add lineup uncertainty
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 52.6%
-6.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.9 pts
Total
7.5
+3.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.