HOU vs TB prediction for September 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.5 - HOU 5.1. TB is favored with a 57.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
TB
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
TB
467
Projected
TB 5.5 — HOU 5.1
Actual
TB 3 — HOU 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph21% whiff
CH24%87 mph32% whiff
SL12%86 mph25% whiff
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH29%83 mph35% whiff
FF27%91 mph22% whiff
ST20%82 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F5 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.52ERA
3.94FIP
9.26K/9
3.51BB/9
1.19WHIP
TB
3.49ERA
3.91FIP
8.88K/9
2.65BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.8 runs
38.8% win
TB F5
3.3 runs
48.7% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
43.8%
YRFI
56.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU6 injured
Yordan Alvarez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.