HOU vs TEX prediction for July 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.4 - HOU 5.1. HOU is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
TEX
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXHOU
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.4 — HOU 5.1
Actual
TEX 7 — HOU 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Brown R
HOU
FF34%96 mph21% whiff
SI27%96 mph10% whiff
KC20%83 mph29% whiff
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
FC30%88 mph12% whiff
SI27%94 mph21% whiff
FF20%94 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
93°F15 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.008
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.2% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.2% EV
+106
ML AWAY
-8.4% EV
-145
F5 OVER 4.5
+8.0% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-5.5% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-5.1% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
3.0 runs
49.8% win
TEX F5
2.4 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
47.5%
YRFI
52.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Matthews HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.092 | Barrel: 25.0% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x
Isaac Paredes HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 6.3% | vs Cal Quantrill | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Brown
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Cal Quantrill
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU7 injured
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP15-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 52.3%
-34.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.2 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →