FINAL: WSH 12 — HOU 11. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 4.8 - HOU 4.1 (WSH at 58.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
WSH
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHHOU
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.9% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 4.8 — HOU 4.1
Actual
WSH 12 — HOU 11
Pick Results
HOU @ WSH NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF28%95 mph11% whiff
CH27%87 mph31% whiff
SL17%90 mph26% whiff
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
FF26%93 mph14% whiff
SI25%93 mph7% whiff
SL21%88 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
91°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.074 Total: 1.040
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-26.6% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-17.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.0% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-17.0% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+8.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
34.2% win
WSH F5
2.9 runs
52.4% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
45.3%
YRFI
54.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Miles Mikolas | Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Miles Mikolas
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Mike Burrows | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=308)
Model projects 8.97 total runs with 55.8% under probability against market 9.5 line. 8.8% under edge is clean, grounded in both SPs being moderate arms (Miles Mikolas C+ 5.4 K/9 — notably weak strikeout production, Mike Burrows C+ 7.5 K/9), hot weather (91.2F, density altitude 2147), and balanced bullpen profiles. Under is contrarian market value.
Key Factors
- Mikolas 5.4 K/9 is alarmingly weak for a starting pitcher (13.1% K rate, C+ grade) — historically, such weak strikeout arms associate with higher run scoring, but market hasn't fully adjusted
- Model total 8.97 vs market 9.5 = 0.53-run edge under (8.8% edge, 55.8% probability)
- Temperature 91.2F with 6.7 mph tail wind adds ~0.4 runs per weather data, yet model still finds under edge — suggests pitcher weakness dominates weather effect
- Both bullpens weak (HOU 4.13, WSH 4.62 ERA) — late-inning scoring risk partially offset by weak starting pitcher performances
Risk Factors
- 8.8% edge is borderline on our minimum threshold (8.0%) — vulnerable to sample variance
- Weather data shows 6.7 mph tail wind could shift +0.5 runs if modeling underestimates park effect
- Burrows (7.5 K/9) could outperform and hit more than 3.3 k expectation, raising run potential
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTBULLPEN FATIGUE RISK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 58.0%
-26.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-26.6 pts
Total
9.5
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →