FINAL: ATL 6 — NYM 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 3.5 - NYM 3.3 (ATL at 55.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
ATL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMATL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
ATL
245
Projected
ATL 3.5 — NYM 3.3
Actual
ATL 6 — NYM 7
Pick Results
NYM @ ATL NRFInrfiWIN+0.96u
NYM @ ATL F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF53%94 mph18% whiff
CH22%87 mph24% whiff
CU13%80 mph34% whiff
Reynaldo López R
ATL
FF54%94 mph13% whiff
SL31%83 mph30% whiff
CU11%74 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
81°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-41.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.6% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+32.2% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.1% EV
+108
NRFI NRFI
+7.8% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-7.8% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.9 runs
41.3% win
ATL F5
1.9 runs
41.5% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Reynaldo López | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL28.6%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Freddy Peralta | Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL26.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Freddy Peralta | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Reynaldo López
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=308)
RARE +2 CONVICTION PLAY: Model projects 6.82 total runs with 69.2% under probability against market 9.0 line. 32.2% under edge is MASSIVE. Both SPs are moderate-weak arms (Lopez C+ 8.2 K/9, Peralta C+ 8.8 K/9) playing in neutral/cool ATL weather (81F, -3.8 mph tail wind into outfield). ATL bullpen is ELITE (2.18 ERA, #1 in MLB). Market is massively overpriced at 9.0 — true edge is under 8.0.
Key Factors
- Model total 6.82 vs market 9.0 = 2.18-run edge under (32.2% edge, 69.2% probability) — exceptional value
- ATL bullpen 2.18 ERA is #1 in MLB per bullpen data (elite closer 1.15 ERA, setup 1.39 ERA) — once SP exits, runs collapse
- Both SPs C+ grades with 8.2-8.8 K/9 rates are pedestrian — market pricing as if elite arms facing weak lineup
- Cool/neutral weather in Atlanta (81F) with -3.8 mph headwind suppresses run environment relative to other venues
- F5 total under 4.5 also shows 15.1% edge (55.3% model prob) — first 5 innings alignment confirms pitcher-focused thesis
Risk Factors
- 32.2% edge triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: historical data shows high-edge plays underperform. Verify this isn't model overconfidence
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.1% WR) remains concern for extreme edges — but F5 sub-market provides diversification
- Juan Soto (NYM) and Matt Olson (ATL) both have 28%+ HR probability — lineups have power capability if SP falters early
TOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHELITE BULLPENWEATHER IMPACTF5 VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 55.0%
-1.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.9 pts
Total
9.0
+32.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →