FINAL: SD 0 — ARI 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 2.7 - ARI 2.6 (SD at 53.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.3 total runs.
SD
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
2.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDARI
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARI W5SD
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.7 — ARI 2.6
Actual
SD 0 — ARI 8
Pick Results
SD F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Gallen R
ARI
FF37%93 mph6% whiff
SL22%89 mph29% whiff
KC18%82 mph21% whiff
R TBD
SD
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
72°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-50.4% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+40.0% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.1% EV
-204
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.1% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
+16.3% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.8% EV
+168
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.4 runs
36.8% win
SD F5
1.6 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
66.4%
YRFI
33.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zac Gallen
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Randy Vasquez SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=308)
CRITICAL DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: ARI home pitcher is TBD, creating unfillable information gap. Model projects 53% home win prob and 74.5% under prob (40% edge), but without confirmed SP, directional confidence is structurally capped. Cannot recommend bet when one side's starting pitcher is unconfirmed.
Key Factors
- ARI home pitcher TBD — cannot make directional bet without SP confirmation
- Model 40% under edge seems extreme for YELLOW zone outcomes (50.1% WR)
- Petco Park -12% run suppression and 72.5F temperature naturally favor unders
- Zac Gallen (away) is weak (12.9% K rate, C grade) — matchup could favor ARI even with moderate SP
Risk Factors
- Unknown SP = unknown game outcome. Any SP swap changes model projection by 5-10%
- Model 74.5% under probability for YELLOW zone suggests overconfidence
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITYINCOMPLETE LINEUP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 53.0%
-37.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.1 pts
Total
8.5
+40.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →