FINAL: STL 3 — MIL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 2.8 - MIL 3.6 (MIL at 58.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
STL
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIL W5STL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.9% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 2.8 — MIL 3.6
Actual
STL 3 — MIL 4
Pick Results
MIL F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Drohan L
MIL
FF30%95 mph26% whiff
SI21%95 mph11% whiff
SL21%86 mph35% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
FF26%97 mph16% whiff
FC22%93 mph21% whiff
ST20%86 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.7% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-38.8% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+31.2% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-13.3% EV
-106
ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+6.2% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.9 runs
46.3% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
61.9%
YRFI
38.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
50%
No HR
19%
Jordan Walker STL22.5%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Shane Drohan | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL21.8%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL18.8%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Drohan
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Max Rajcic RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=308)
Model projects 6.4 total runs with 66.9% under probability against market 8.0 line. 31.2% under edge is strong despite YELLOW zone. Drohan (MIL away, LHP B 9.4 K/9) outpitches Dustin May (STL home, RHP B- 8.3 K/9). Warm weather (87.6F, +5.0 mph tail wind) adds ~0.3 runs, but pitcher quality dominates. Market misprice favors under.
Key Factors
- Drohan (MIL away) B grade, 9.4 K/9 vs May (STL home) B- grade, 8.3 K/9 — away pitcher quality advantage is unusual and valuable
- Model total 6.4 vs market 8.0 = 1.6-run edge under (31.2% edge, 66.9% probability)
- Warm weather (87.6F) with +5.0 mph tail wind adds ~0.3 runs per weather data, but pitcher mismatch dominates
- STL home field typically prices as favorite (market -102 STL) but starting pitcher disadvantage is real — away value
Risk Factors
- 31.2% edge is in HIGH_EDGE_WARNING territory — model may be overconfident on pitcher quality gap
- STL market shows -102 ML (favoring STL home), so market is pricing series correctly on side but over-estimating runs
- MIL away teams have historical bias issues — check if MIL underperforms on the road
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 58.5%
-44.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.7 pts
Total
8.0
+31.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →