FINAL: TB 1 — NYY 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 2.9 - NYY 3.4 (NYY at 55.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
TB
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY L5TB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 2.9 — NYY 3.4
Actual
TB 1 — NYY 5
Pick Results
NYY F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph29% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI19%98 mph16% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST26%88 mph35% whiff
CH22%91 mph36% whiff
SI20%96 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
89°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.8% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-25.8% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.9% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-110
ML HOME
-7.8% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.4% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.8 runs
44.0% win
TB F5
1.6 runs
37.2% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY25.5%
ISO: 0.156 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x
Ryan McMahon NYY24.8%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=308)
Model projects 6.31 total runs with 62% under probability against market 7.5 line (38% implied over). 15.9% edge on under is legitimate despite YELLOW zone, driven by two weak-to-moderate starting pitchers (Jax B-, Schlittler B both sub-9.5 K/9) and indoor Tropicana neutrality suppressing variance. NRFI also shows 60.4% nrfi prob (3.6% edge, GREEN zone).
Key Factors
- Model total 6.31 vs market 7.5 = 1.19-run edge favoring UNDER (15.9% edge, 62% model probability)
- NRFI at 60.4% model prob: GREEN zone NRFI (54% historical WR, 59 samples) — most actionable sub-market on this game
- Both SPs moderate quality: Jax 8.4 K/9, Schlittler 9.7 K/9 — neither elite strikeout arm, supports lower run environment
- Closed roof (Tropicana) eliminates weather variance — pure pitcher skill matchup
- NYY bullpen elite (3.36 ERA), TB middle (4.35 ERA) — late-inning compression favors under as NYY likely extends lead with dominant relief
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.1% WR) means edge is against historical norms — risk of recalibration
- Model could be underestimating home run frequency in smaller sample (only 8.4-9.7 K/9 rates don't guarantee low run environment)
- Away team (NYY) historically underperforms in close totals matchups
TOTALS VALUEGREEN ZONENRFI EDGEPITCHER MISMATCH SLIGHT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 55.1%
-40.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.8 pts
Total
7.5
+15.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →