FINAL: DET 4 — KC 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 4.5 - KC 3.3 (DET at 56.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
DET
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETKC
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KCDET L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
DET
346
Projected
DET 4.5 — KC 3.3
Actual
DET 4 — KC 3
Pick Results
KC @ DET F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.46u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI43%92 mph6% whiff
ST23%82 mph32% whiff
CH19%85 mph26% whiff
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%96 mph17% whiff
FC20%92 mph23% whiff
SL18%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
79°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.2% EV
-111
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-15.0% EV
-108
ML AWAY
+13.4% EV
+188
ML HOME
-12.7% EV
-227
F5_ML HOME
-8.0% EV
-244
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.9% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.6 runs
29.9% win
DET F5
2.6 runs
53.8% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
39%
No HR
27%
Dillon Dingler DET28.4%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Randy Dobnak | Park: 0.97x
Riley Greene DET27.0%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Randy Dobnak | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET26.8%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Randy Dobnak | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Randy Dobnak
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Troy Melton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP60-DAY-IL
Bobby Witt Jr. SS10-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model shows 13.4% KC ML edge but away underdog historical support is RED (a supportive track record historically). Prefer UNDER 8.5 (5.8% edge, historically mixed a supportive track record), which reflects pitcher mismatch without underdog penalty.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch is SEVERE: Melton (23.6% K, 0.419 stuff score, B-) vs Dobnak (11.3% K, 0.014 stuff, C-). Melton's K rate is 2x Dobnak's. Typical 2.5-3.5 run swing to home team.
- Away underdog historical support RED: a supportive track record on similar KC away underdog ML edges. This historical support historically loses money.
- UNDER 8.5 is preferred market: 5.8% edge, historically mixed, wind blowing IN (-7.7 tail). More sustainable than ML edge.
- Manager absence (Quatraro, KC) adds minor distraction risk, but not directly quantifiable.
Risk Factors
- KC ML shows 13.4% edge but historically weak — high edge + poor historical support = classic trap. Model likely overconfident on underdog value.
- Market's 69.4% DET probability appears rational given pitcher talent gap. No obvious market inefficiency.
- Randy Dobnak has 0.014 stuff score — essentially no deception. Model may be overestimating KC's ability to compete.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 56.7%
-6.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.9 pts
Total
8.5
+5.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →