FINAL: TOR 3 — TB 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 4.5 - TB 5.3 (TB at 52.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
TOR
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTB
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TBTOR W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
TOR
346
Projected
TOR 4.5 — TB 5.3
Actual
TOR 3 — TB 1
Pick Results
TB @ TOR NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Legumina R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%93 mph22% whiff
SI19%93 mph5% whiff
ST14%80 mph33% whiff
Shane Bieber R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%92 mph11% whiff
CH21%88 mph26% whiff
KC19%83 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
69°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.077 Total: 1.044
12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.0% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-18.1% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-17.8% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+8.5% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
+6.9% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+5.4% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.1 runs
52.0% win
TOR F5
2.3 runs
34.7% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Shane Bieber | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR24.2%
ISO: 0.087 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Casey Legumina | Park: 1.01x
Jonathan Aranda TB24.1%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Shane Bieber | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Legumina
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Shane Bieber
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Patrick Corbin SP15-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model favors OVER 8.5 (8.5% edge) due to Bieber's poor 6.16 ERA vs Legumina's superior 4.23 ERA, and massive tailwind (11.6 mph OUT) at Rogers Centre — weather effect alone adds 0.5-1.0 runs.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors TB: Legumina (4.23 ERA, B-, stronger command) vs Bieber (6.16 ERA, C+, 0.284 stuff). Bieber's poor stuff score indicates hittable fastball. Typical 1.5-2.0 run swing to away team.
- Favorable weather: 11.6 mph tailwind OUT at Rogers Centre (retractable roof). HR mult 1.077, total mult 1.044. Adds 0.5-1.0 runs to expected total.
- Model edge (8.5%) is moderate and within calibration (5.0% min for totals, 20.0% max). historically mixed is neutral but weather effect is real.
- Temperature 68.7°F is neutral; retractable roof removes weather variance, making wind tailwind effect more reliable.
Risk Factors
- TB away ML shows RED combo historical support — moneyline bets on TB are historically weak. Stick to TOTAL.
- Bieber recent performance unknown (Bayesian ERA 6.16 suggests struggles, but ESPN article mentions he pitched well yesterday — possible data timing issue).
- Wind direction could shift; 11.6 mph is significant but weather data from simulation may be outdated.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.0%
-39.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.0 pts
Total
8.5
+8.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →