FINAL: CLE 1 — MIN 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 5.6 - MIN 5.2 (CLE at 53.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
CLE
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN W4CLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
357
CLE
468
Projected
CLE 5.6 — MIN 5.2
Actual
CLE 1 — MIN 3
Pick Results
MIN F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Taj Bradley R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%97 mph12% whiff
FC24%90 mph37% whiff
FS20%91 mph35% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%87 mph42% whiff
FF24%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-41.2% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.9% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+34.4% EV
-102
F5 OVER 3.5
+14.5% EV
-147
ML HOME
-7.3% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-7.0% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.9 runs
40.5% win
CLE F5
3.2 runs
47.5% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
45.0%
YRFI
55.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x
Ryan Jeffers MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 6.3% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Victor Caratini CDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE2 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model predicts 10.87 runs vs market 7.5 — 3.37 run gap is extreme, but wind blowing IN and high-edge calibration caps suggest market may be rationally skeptical of model's run projection.
Key Factors
- Extreme model-market gap: +3.37 runs (model 10.87 vs market 7.5). Exceeds calibration cap of 13% for total edges.
- Pitcher quality evenly matched: Williams (B, 4.32 ERA, 29.1% K) vs Bradley (B-, 4.16 ERA, 27.2% K). No significant mismatch.
- Adverse weather: Wind 7.6 mph blowing IN (-7.1 tail), typical -0.5 to -1.0 run suppression on overs. Accounts for ~25% of model-market gap.
- historical support performance: YELLOW (a supportive track record) on totals, indicating historical neutrality. High edge (34.4%) + high prob (67.9%) = worst historical outcomes per calibration.
Risk Factors
- Model edge (34.4%) exceeds calibration max (13.0%). High likelihood of overconfidence.
- High probability (67.9%) + high edge = worst historical win rate profile (a supportive track record in 60-65% historical support per 30-day profile).
- Park factor (0.994) and wind (IN) both suppress overs. Model may not be fully weighting weather suppression.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 53.2%
+6.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+6.7 pts
Total
7.5
+34.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →