ARI vs STL prediction for July 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.7 - ARI 3.9. STL is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
STL
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLARI
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.2% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
STL
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF23%93 mph10% whiff
SI20%93 mph8% whiff
CU18%82 mph33% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%92 mph11% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
SI17%90 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
84°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.0 runs
40.4% win
STL F5
2.1 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.3%
YRFI
41.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Pedro Pages CDAY-TO-DAY
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model and market are nearly perfectly aligned (50.6% STL model vs 52.9% market). No actionable edge exists on either side.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge: McGreevy (3.15 ERA, C+ grade, 8.0 K/9) vs Pfaadt (4.95 ERA, C+ grade, 8.0 K/9). 1.8 ERA advantage typical of 0.5-1.0 run swing, consistent with market pricing.
- Totals edge: 0.0% edge on UNDER 7.5 (model 7.61 vs market 7.5). Market perfectly captures model's run projection.
- Weather effects offset: Wind blowing IN (suppresses overs), warm temp (supports overs). No net advantage.
- Both teams' records and advanced metrics suggest even matchup; no unexpected lineup advantages detected.
Risk Factors
- Minimal edge creates risk of false value — avoid forcing a play on neutral games.
- Park factor 0.999 (neutral) offers no distortion.
- No material injuries affecting either team's key players.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →