FINAL: HOU 2 — KC 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 3.9 - KC 4.3 (KC at 51.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
HOU
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
KC
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUKC
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (3,953 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.9 — KC 4.3
Actual
HOU 2 — KC 5
Pick Results
KC MLmlWIN+0.62u
KC MLmlWIN+0.62u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Daniel Lynch IV L
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%94 mph14% whiff
CH24%86 mph23% whiff
SL20%87 mph36% whiff
Cristian Javier R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph23% whiff
ST26%81 mph38% whiff
CH17%85 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
88°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.91ERA
4.86FIP
7.90K/9
4.68BB/9
1.55WHIP
HOU
3.52ERA
4.00FIP
9.20K/9
3.54BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 4.5
-14.5% EV
-132
ML AWAY
+12.6% EV
+145
F5_ML AWAY
+12.6% EV
+122
ML HOME
-11.9% EV
-159
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.5% EV
+135
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-9.8% EV
-101
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.4 runs
46.6% win
HOU F5
2.1 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Daniel Lynch IV | Park: 0.99x
Carter Jensen KC28.6%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Cristian Javier | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC25.6%
ISO: 0.168 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Cristian Javier | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Daniel Lynch IV
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Cristian Javier
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU6 injured
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell LFPATERNITY
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
KC away ML shows 14.6% edge — strong but historically weak away underdog territory. Recent 30-day data (away ML a supportive track record) suggests current market undervalues road teams with clear pitcher edges. Lynch IV (3.8 ERA) dominates Javier (5.94 ERA).
Key Factors
- SP edge clear: Lynch IV 3.8 ERA vs Javier 5.94 ERA — 2.14 ERA gap substantial though both mediocre overall
- Away rebound: 30-day away ML a supportive track record vs historical historically weak a supportive track record
- HOU bullpen elite: 3.52 ERA (0.93 closer, best in MLB) mitigates KC road advantage late
- Dome inflates scoring slightly at Daikin Park (+1.029 total mult)
Risk Factors
- historically weak away ML: historical a supportive track record argues caution despite recent rebound
- 14.6% edge near high-edge warning threshold; model could be overconfident
- HOU elite closer likely decides close games; KC bullpen weaker
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 51.4%
-10.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.5 pts
Total
9.0
+3.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.