FINAL: MIN 3 — LAA 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 5.0 - LAA 5.1 (MIN at 50.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
MIN
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINLAA
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAAMIN L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 47.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
MIN
357
Projected
MIN 5.0 — LAA 5.1
Actual
MIN 3 — LAA 4
Pick Results
LAA F5 MLf5_mlWIN+1.20u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
FF53%96 mph12% whiff
CH20%83 mph22% whiff
CU14%81 mph21% whiff
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL21%87 mph36% whiff
CU14%80 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
88°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.008
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.3% EV
-164
F5_ML HOME
-13.3% EV
-149
ML HOME
-11.4% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.0% EV
+136
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-6.4% EV
-122
ML AWAY
+6.3% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.9 runs
43.9% win
MIN F5
3.0 runs
44.2% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
44.2%
YRFI
55.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x
Jorge Soler LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x
Josh Lowe LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 5.9% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grayson Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.2%
-10.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.0 pts
Total
9.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →