LAA vs MIN prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 6.2 - LAA 5.1. MIN is favored with a 55.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
MIN
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINLAA
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
MIN
468
Projected
MIN 6.2 — LAA 5.1
Actual
MIN 4 — LAA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
LAA
SI26%96 mph21% whiff
KC25%85 mph41% whiff
FF24%97 mph21% whiff
Taj Bradley R
MIN
FF48%97 mph12% whiff
FC24%90 mph39% whiff
FS19%91 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
95°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.002
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.3% EV
-192
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+17.1% EV
+158
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-17.1% EV
-118
F5 OVER 4.5
+15.1% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-10.9% EV
+108
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+8.2% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.9 runs
37.0% win
MIN F5
3.7 runs
51.1% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
42.3%
YRFI
57.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.41
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.99x
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.99x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs José Soriano | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=328)
Model projects 11.3 total runs vs market 9.5 — 8.2% edge on OVER 9.5. High-scoring lineups (LAA 5.08, MIN 6.22 projected) combined with strong hitters in lineup should generate runs. Taj Bradley (B-, 27.8% K-rate, 10.1 K/9) slightly edges José Soriano (B-, 25.5% K-rate, 9.5 K/9). Weather HOT (94.7°F) suppresses runs slightly due to 8 mph wind blowing IN; park neutral.
Key Factors
- Total model 11.3 vs market 9.5 = 1.8 run gap, 8.2% edge on OVER
- Lineups: LAA Mike Trout/Zach Neto (strong), MIN also capable — both teams project 5+ runs
- Pitcher quality: Bradley (27.8% K-rate) vs Soriano (25.5% K-rate) — Bradley slight edge, but both B- grade
- Weather: 94.7°F (hot) + 8 mph IN wind + high humidity = runs suppressed relative to temperature
- YRFI edge 4.6% (55.1% model prob) contradicts under thesis — early run scoring expected
Risk Factors
- 8.2% edge on total — YELLOW zone shows 50.1% WR, meaning edge is fairly efficiently priced
- Wind blowing IN during heat could suppress runs more than model anticipates
- MIN bullpen 4.99 ERA is poor (worst in AL Central); if game tightens, MIN bullpen could give up runs
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 55.3%
+17.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+17.1 pts
Total
9.5
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →