LAA vs OAK prediction for September 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.6 - LAA 6.0. LAA is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
OAK
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKLAA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (4,029 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
468
OAK
468
Projected
OAK 5.6 — LAA 6.0
Actual
OAK 7 — LAA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH34%91 mph36% whiff
SI33%98 mph17% whiff
FF19%98 mph19% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%91 mph12% whiff
CH25%80 mph35% whiff
SL22%84 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
89°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.13FIP
9.44K/9
3.85BB/9
1.37WHIP
OAK
4.90ERA
4.36FIP
9.46K/9
4.61BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
3.6 runs
51.5% win
OAK F5
3.1 runs
36.7% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
41.5%
YRFI
58.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.45
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyren Paris 2B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
J.T. Ginn SP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Gage Jump SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.