FINAL: CHC 2 — MIA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 5.9 - MIA 4.9 (CHC at 63.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
CHC
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
MIA
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIA
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.3% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 5.9 — MIA 4.9
Actual
CHC 2 — MIA 3
Pick Results
MIA @ CHC YRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%95 mph20% whiff
CH14%87 mph18% whiff
ST13%82 mph14% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph12% whiff
FS39%84 mph40% whiff
SL9%84 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
62°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.970 Total: 0.981
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.33ERA
4.01FIP
9.87K/9
4.33BB/9
1.32WHIP
CHC
4.26ERA
4.68FIP
9.24K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 6.5
+24.7% EV
-118
F5 OVER 3.5
+20.0% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
-15.3% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-6.6% EV
+136
NRFI YRFI
+5.3% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-4.6% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.7 runs
34.8% win
CHC F5
3.6 runs
53.1% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
44.6%
YRFI
55.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.35
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Griffin Conine MIA28.3%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC27.1%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Gusto
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Alex Bregman 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
F5 OVER 3.5 shows the slate's largest edge (17.5%, 64.6% model vs 47.1% market), reflecting an early-inning scoring environment at Wrigley, but the sheer size of the edge argues for a smaller, more cautious position given known model overconfidence at extreme edges.
Key Factors
- F5 OVER 3.5 edge 17.5% (model 64.6% vs market 47.1%) is the single highest edge across the entire 16-game slate
- Gausman (4.91 ERA) and Gusto (4.47 ERA) are peer-tier starters, so the F5 edge is more about lineup/park than a true pitching gap
- YRFI 6.5% secondary edge (51.7% model vs 45.2% implied) supports the early-scoring thesis
- Full-game model win prob for CHC (62.9%) confirms a home-favored environment consistent with early scoring
Risk Factors
- An edge this large (17.5%) is squarely in historical support that has produced the worst historical results — treat with maximum skepticism
- F5 markets are typically sharp and efficient; a gap this size is more likely a model quirk than true mispricing
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 63.6%
+0.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.5 pts
Total
6.5
+24.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.