FINAL: HOU 5 — MIA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 4.9 - MIA 5.5 (MIA at 50.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
HOU
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIA
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUMIA
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (2,971 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
467
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 4.9 — MIA 5.5
Actual
HOU 5 — MIA 3
Pick Results
MIA @ HOU F5 OVER 5.5f5WIN+1.10u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%97 mph9% whiff
CH21%91 mph27% whiff
FF19%98 mph17% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph20% whiff
CH22%87 mph34% whiff
SL16%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
96°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.4% EV
-200
F5_ML HOME
-19.1% EV
-135
F5_ML AWAY
+11.3% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-9.5% EV
+100
ML HOME
-8.3% EV
-127
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.1% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
3.0 runs
48.7% win
HOU F5
2.5 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
John King RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model 65.3% OVER 9.0 (12.41 total, +19.5% edge) with strong F5 OVER 5.5 (+22.1% edge, 58.1% prob) and MIA @ HOU typically high-scoring. SP: Imai (B-, 6.54 ERA mediocre, 8.0 K/9, command 0.341 low) vs Phillips (C+, 3.76 ERA better, 8.0 K/9, command 0.465) — Phillips clearly superior, HOU has pitching edge. Weather hot (95.5F) + retractable roof closed = neutral baseline, but heat adds 0.4-0.5 runs expected. Bullpen: HOU 4.13 ERA vs MIA 3.85 ERA (MIA slight +0.28 ERA edge). 19.5% edge solid but model 65.3% OVER approaches weak historical support. F5 OVER 5.5 is cleaner play.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch HOU: Phillips (3.76 ERA, C+ grade, command 0.465) beats Imai (6.54 ERA mediocre, B- grade, command 0.341 very low) — clear HOU pitching advantage ~0.5 runs
- Weather heat 95.5F + retractable roof closed = adds 0.4-0.5 runs from baseline
- MIL bullpen edge: 3.85 ERA vs HOU 4.13 ERA (+0.28 ERA advantage) away team
- F5 OVER 5.5 shows massive +22.1% edge (58.1% prob) — early-inning advantage MIA/high-scoring expected
- Model away ML edge minimal (49.9% vs 48.1% market, +1.8% edge) but OVER 9.0 at +19.5% suggests scoring focus not team prediction
Risk Factors
- Model 65.3% OVER approaches weak historical support; edge 19.5% solid but probability near threshold
- SP mismatch actually favors HOU pitcher, limiting overs potential (good pitching suppresses runs) — edge somewhat contradictory
- HOU home field advantage + Phillips superior pitching may drive one-sided game, reducing total potential
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.4%
-7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.