MIL vs LAD prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.5 - MIL 4.1. MIL is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
LAD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADMIL
+1.5
Run Line (LAD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
LAD
245
Projected
LAD 3.5 — MIL 4.1
Actual
LAD 1 — MIL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF64%100 mph38% whiff
FC13%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph30% whiff
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%94 mph22% whiff
SL29%86 mph18% whiff
SI8%94 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
80°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.076 Total: 1.041
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.39ERA
3.57FIP
9.16K/9
3.67BB/9
1.25WHIP
LAD
3.91ERA
3.90FIP
10.21K/9
4.26BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.3 runs
47.4% win
LAD F5
1.8 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Brice Turang 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.