FINAL: KC 3 — MIN 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 3.7 - MIN 3.0 (KC at 58.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
KC
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIN
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCMIN
-1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MINKC L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.3% (3,170 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.7 — MIN 3.0
Actual
KC 3 — MIN 4
Pick Results
MIN @ KC NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bailey Ober R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH35%83 mph22% whiff
FF31%88 mph16% whiff
SL16%82 mph12% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph18% whiff
CH24%81 mph27% whiff
FC16%89 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
80°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.007
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.17ERA
3.87FIP
9.09K/9
3.86BB/9
1.36WHIP
KC
5.27ERA
5.40FIP
7.69K/9
4.53BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-25.3% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.5% EV
+106
F5_ML AWAY
-18.5% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+14.5% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.9% EV
-196
NRFI NRFI
+7.0% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.4 runs
29.9% win
KC F5
2.1 runs
50.6% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
64.3%
YRFI
35.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC23.6%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.96x
Kody Clemens MIN23.5%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Luinder Avila SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Michael Wacha (3.79 ERA, 19.7% K-rate, B- stuff) vs Bailey Ober (4.81 ERA, 16.9% K-rate, B- stuff) — Wacha slight edge at home in Kansas City (neutral park, 80.2°F, light wind, 1.007 total_mult). Model UNDER 9.0 at 61.9% prob (14.5% edge) lands in high-edge territory — historically mixed suggests caution. F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 24.5% edge at 60.4% prob, again HIGH-EDGE-WARNING signal.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Wacha 3.79 ERA (B- stuff 0.452, 19.7 K%) > Ober 4.81 ERA (B- stuff 0.427, 16.9 K%) — Wacha ~1pp ERA advantage with K-rate edge
- Kauffman Stadium neutral (1.007 total_mult) at 80.2°F, low wind (-4.9 mph tail) — baseline run environment without amplifiers
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge 24.5% (model 60.4%) signals model pricing runs much lower in early innings; possibly Wacha strong early vs Ober weakness
- KC home field (+1% implied) baked into market already
Risk Factors
- 14.5% edge = HIGH-EDGE-WARNING per calibration; our recent pattern shows high-edge games (>15%) underperform dramatically (a supportive track record on tracked data)
- F5 edge 24.5% even more extreme — suggests model overconfidence on first-inning suppression
- MIN road team travel burden could offset ERA advantage if bullpen fatigued
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 58.5%
+2.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.2 pts
Total
9.0
+14.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.