MIN vs LAA prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.6 - MIN 3.5. LAA is favored with a 54.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
LAA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAMIN
-1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
245
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.6 — MIN 3.5
Actual
LAA 6 — MIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Ryan R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph20% whiff
ST15%80 mph37% whiff
FS12%88 mph22% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph17% whiff
SL33%86 mph34% whiff
CU11%72 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.034
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.44ERA
4.10FIP
9.26K/9
4.10BB/9
1.40WHIP
LAA
4.12ERA
4.07FIP
9.52K/9
3.84BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.8 runs
36.6% win
LAA F5
2.1 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Trevor Larnach LF10-DAY-IL
Kaelen Culpepper SS10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyren Paris 2B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.