NYM vs ATL prediction for August 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 5.2 - NYM 3.8. ATL is favored with a 61.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
ATL
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (3,252 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 5.2 — NYM 3.8
Actual
ATL 6 — NYM 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%88 mph17% whiff
FF24%92 mph13% whiff
SL15%85 mph27% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph17% whiff
FS26%86 mph27% whiff
FC17%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
76°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.41ERA
4.39FIP
9.13K/9
4.43BB/9
1.43WHIP
ATL
2.85ERA
3.36FIP
9.83K/9
3.15BB/9
1.09WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
33.7% win
ATL F5
3.0 runs
51.8% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model projects 62.4% ATL home win prob with -2.1% edge — essentially agreeing with the market (63.7% implied). Model favors ATL DESPITE Tyler Mahle's SP disadvantage (5.22 ERA) vs Zac Thornton's superior 2.72 ERA; the model's lean is driven by home-field/lineup factors, not the starting pitcher matchup, so this should not be read as a pitcher-based edge in either direction.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors NYM: Zac Thornton (2.72 ERA, B- grade, 17.6% K-rate) is superior to Tyler Mahle (5.22 ERA, C+ grade, 22.9% K-rate) — away team has the better arm
- Model favors ATL despite this SP disadvantage: the lean must be driven by lineup quality/home-field factors, not pitching — ATL's offense (Olson, Baldwin, Harris) projects strong regardless of starter
- Market and model are closely aligned (63.7% vs 62.4%) — negative edge means no exploitable mispricing exists
- NRFI weak: Only 1.3% edge NRFI despite Thornton's control, suggesting first inning not particularly suppressed
Risk Factors
- No real ML edge exists (-2.1%) — betting against the model or with it both lack value here
- NYM away underdog with elite Thornton could have merit as a small dog play, but data doesn't support high conviction
- Thornton's ERA advantage may not offset ATL's superior lineup depth at home
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.