FINAL: PHI 11 — NYY 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.1 - NYY 4.5 (NYY at 50.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
PHI
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYY
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W4PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (3,032 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
346
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 4.1 — NYY 4.5
Actual
PHI 11 — NYY 4
Pick Results
NYY @ PHI F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.53u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%94 mph20% whiff
SI27%93 mph18% whiff
ST20%84 mph22% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI43%95 mph10% whiff
CH39%87 mph42% whiff
SL19%86 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
81°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.034
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-25.3% EV
+106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-21.9% EV
-128
ML AWAY
+21.0% EV
+166
F5_ML AWAY
+20.3% EV
+168
F5_ML HOME
-19.0% EV
-213
ML HOME
-17.7% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
42.9% win
PHI F5
2.4 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Cristopher Sánchez | Park: 1.02x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI26.8%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Stubbs C10-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.9%
-25.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-25.3 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.