OAK vs ARI prediction for July 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 6.1 - OAK 5.3. ARI is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
ARI
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIOAK
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.2% (2,956 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Perkins R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%96 mph13% whiff
ST30%86 mph34% whiff
CH18%90 mph43% whiff
R TBD
ARI
Weather Impact
Chase Field
105°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.0 runs
38.8% win
ARI F5
3.5 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
49.0%
YRFI
51.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Sterner RP15-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Corbin Carroll RFDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 56.1%
+14.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+14.8 pts
Total
9.0
+12.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.