PHI vs ATL prediction for September 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 3.6 - PHI 4.3. PHI is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
ATL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLPHI
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 3.6 — PHI 4.3
Actual
ATL 12 — PHI 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tim Mayza L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI56%94 mph17% whiff
SL31%87 mph27% whiff
FF10%95 mph31% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph20% whiff
FS28%86 mph26% whiff
FC16%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
80°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.32ERA
3.92FIP
10.20K/9
3.52BB/9
1.34WHIP
ATL
3.00ERA
3.33FIP
9.64K/9
3.08BB/9
1.12WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.3 runs
45.5% win
ATL F5
2.0 runs
37.6% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Jesus Luzardo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Marsh LFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.