PHI vs ATL prediction for October 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.8 - PHI 3.9. ATL is favored with a 63.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLPHI
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.9% (4,047 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.8 — PHI 3.9
Actual
ATL 6 — PHI 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph40% whiff
FF24%92 mph11% whiff
SI18%92 mph10% whiff
Ray Kerr L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph22% whiff
CU31%81 mph30% whiff
SI23%95 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
80°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.007
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.52ERA
3.92FIP
10.12K/9
3.52BB/9
1.38WHIP
ATL
3.14ERA
3.46FIP
9.53K/9
2.96BB/9
1.12WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
30.6% win
ATL F5
3.0 runs
54.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
ATL8 injured
Tyler Mahle SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.