PHI vs MIN prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.5 - PHI 4.1. PHI is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
MIN
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.8% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
MIN
245
Projected
MIN 3.5 — PHI 4.1
Actual
MIN 1 — PHI 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%86 mph47% whiff
FF24%97 mph13% whiff
SI19%96 mph11% whiff
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL30%88 mph28% whiff
FF29%96 mph12% whiff
CU17%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
81°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.38ERA
3.80FIP
10.34K/9
3.56BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIN
4.06ERA
3.85FIP
9.22K/9
3.91BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
46.5% win
MIN F5
1.8 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
MIN7 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.