PHI vs SEA prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.4 - PHI 3.8. SEA is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
SEA
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.4 — PHI 3.8
Actual
SEA 4 — PHI 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph42% whiff
FF24%92 mph12% whiff
SI18%92 mph9% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST29%87 mph25% whiff
FF28%97 mph19% whiff
SI21%97 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
81°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.039
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.36ERA
3.85FIP
10.35K/9
3.59BB/9
1.35WHIP
SEA
3.85ERA
4.04FIP
8.99K/9
3.38BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.9 runs
34.3% win
SEA F5
2.5 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.