FINAL: CWS 2 — PIT 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.8 - PIT 5.6 (PIT at 59.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PIT
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT L4CWS W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.9% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
468
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.8 — PIT 5.6
Actual
CWS 2 — PIT 4
Pick Results
PIT MLmlWIN+0.62u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Lake Bachar R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%94 mph15% whiff
SL24%90 mph36% whiff
CU18%86 mph36% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%94 mph20% whiff
SI18%93 mph6% whiff
CU14%82 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
82°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.59ERA
3.58FIP
9.69K/9
4.25BB/9
1.25WHIP
CWS
4.09ERA
4.42FIP
8.78K/9
4.39BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+17.7% EV
+117
F5_ML HOME
-16.4% EV
-145
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.7% EV
+157
F5 UNDER 4.5
-10.3% EV
+104
F5_ML AWAY
+9.1% EV
+116
NRFI NRFI
-8.5% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.0 runs
46.8% win
CWS F5
2.7 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Davis Martin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.295 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Lake Bachar | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT29.6%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Davis Martin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Lake Bachar
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
PIT away favorite shows a strong 17.7% ML edge backed by a real pitching advantage (Bachar 3.88 ERA vs Martin 4.46 ERA), and while away favorites are a structurally weak archetype (a supportive track record), the size of this edge combined with the SP gap supports a moderate-conviction play.
Key Factors
- Edge: 17.7% (54.3% model vs 46.1% market implied) — large edge, exceeds the 15% actionable threshold
- SP quality: Bachar (PIT) 3.88 ERA vs Martin (CWS) 4.46 ERA = 0.58 ERA gap favoring away
- Away-favorite archetype WR: 45.4% — structural caution still applies
- Weather: warm (82.4F), mild wind out — minor positive run impact for both sides
Risk Factors
- Away-favorite structural weakness (a supportive track record) is a real headwind against this pick despite the edge size
- CWS home-field advantage is a legitimate offsetting factor the market may be correctly pricing
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 59.2%
-12.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.7 pts
Total
9.0
+5.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.