SEA vs COL prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.3 - SEA 5.7. COL is favored with a 60.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
COL
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
SEA
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSEA
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.3% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
COL
468
Projected
COL 6.3 — SEA 5.7
Actual
COL 5 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph17% whiff
FS24%85 mph29% whiff
SL11%87 mph30% whiff
Jose Quintana L
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%90 mph19% whiff
CH21%85 mph30% whiff
SI19%90 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
63°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.108 Total: 1.054
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.06ERA
4.16FIP
8.69K/9
3.31BB/9
1.33WHIP
COL
4.89ERA
4.33FIP
7.82K/9
4.24BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.3 runs
39.8% win
COL F5
3.7 runs
48.7% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
41.5%
YRFI
58.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.50
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.